Assumptions
Start with a scenario, then drag any dial to test it — the verdict updates live as you go.
Memory need by grossed bucket vs serving fleet
Bars stack to the installed HBM the year’s workload needs, after redundancy and fixed utilization. The dashed blue line is the surviving serving fleet (recent cohorts of output × inference share); the dotted gray line is what’s built each year. Hover a year for exact numbers.
Formula audit
Additive buckets + fleet accountingYearly model
| Year | Tokens/mo | Replica index | Context bucket | Weights | KV cache | Scratch | Total need | Built/yr | China (walled) | Serving fleet | Balance |
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Disclaimer & disclosures
Memory Analyst is an independent research site, written by one person for discussion, education, and frankly entertainment. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, accounting, or procurement advice, it is not personalized to you, and it does not account for your objectives, risk tolerance, or situation. Nothing here is a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security, private investment, memory product, GPU, contract, or related asset, and nothing creates an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship. “Alex Corrino” writes independently on a best-effort, amateur basis and, in connection with this site, is not acting as a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or licensed professional. If you want advice, hire someone licensed to give it. This is for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Now the part that matters most: the author holds positions in some of the companies discussed here and may be long and/or short. The names that come up — Micron, SK hynix, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, and others — are examples of what gets covered, not a list of current holdings or any representation of what the author owns at a given moment. Positions, and those of family or related accounts, can change at any time without notice, and there is no obligation to disclose, update, or correct them. The author is not paid by, and has no affiliate or sponsorship relationship with, any company mentioned. Assume a real, built-in conflict of interest, assume the content may be self-serving, and read it that way.
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